Twitter is Hanging By a Thread
Twitter is Hanging By a Thread
How long before it's completely screwed?
Meta's new Threads app — launched last Wednesday — has already hit the 100 million users milestone, surpassing ChatGPT to become the fastest-growing consumer application in history.
As a self-declared Meta cynic, I can't deny that I'm impressed with how well it has rolled out. In terms of releasing an MVP, this was a Hail Mary. Yes, there were issues and many missing features, but on the whole, it was a pretty faultless launch. The product worked, and people signed up in droves. However, I'm less impressed with the product itself, which is exactly like Twitter, except not because it's missing many of Twitter's best features. Most of all, I hate the home feed pushing me horrible algorithmically-recommended content from celebrities and influencers. Unless a 'For You' feed appears soon, I'll not be coming back.
Still, it's worth saying again. 100 million users. The Threads launch has reiterated that Meta operates and executes at a totally different scale in the social space. It's clear that it's only a matter of time before Threads is bigger than Twitter. It could even happen in the next couple of weeks. But it's also clear this app won't kill Twitter, not in its current copy-and-paste format. There isn't much incentive to switch right now unless you have a sizeable Instagram audience. To win, Meta will have to figure out ways of innovating and differentiating its platform, giving people a reason to jump ship. Meta's track record with innovation doesn't fill me with much hope. I expect most of Twitter's features will be implemented (read: copied), and it will eventually be 1:1, with slight branding and aesthetic differences.
No, at the moment, only Twitter can kill itself, likely through death by a thousand poorly thought-out changes in response to its new rival. And you better believe that Threads has Musk worried.
I assumed he would respond with childish jokes and memes. We got some of that, with Musk tweeting that "Zuck is a cuck," and proposing that they settle the rivalry with "a literal dick measuring contest." He also claimed that "censorship pays them [Meta] well," something Musk rallies against until he has to comply with governments or overwhelming public opinion. But I didn't expect Musk to threaten legal action.
The legal letter claims, "Twitter has serious concerns that Meta Platforms ("Meta*) has engaged in systematic, willful, and unlawful misappropriation of Twitter's trade secrets and other intellectual property." There is some truth to this point, but ALL the Twitter alternatives look and work much the same. Meta's likeness is only causing issues because of its initial success. The biggest laugh of all is that Musk wants to sue Meta for hiring employees that he fired without rhyme or reason, under the guise that they must have spilled the beans on Twitter's secrets:
Over the past year, Meta has hired dozens of former Twitter employees. Twitter knows that these employees previously worked at Twitter; that these employees had and continue to have access to Twitter's trade secrets and other highly confidential information; that these employees owe ongoing obligations to Twitter; and that many of these employees have improperly retained Twitter documents and electronic devices.
This is false. As confirmed by communications director Andy Stone, none of these employees worked on Threads. In a Thread (I guess this is a thing now), he stated, "No one on the Threads engineering team is a former Twitter employee — that's just not a thing."
The lawsuit is just bluster and nothing more than a statement to stoke anger towards Meta from Musk's cultist following. Grab your torch and pitchforks! And it's likely the first of many public unravellings we'll see from him as he adjusts to having the first serious alternative enter the ring. It couldn't have come at a worse time, too, with ad revenue still stuttering, blue subscriptions struggling, and traffic taking a nosedive. Twitter is still culturally significant and firmly embedded in the societal discourse, especially with news and politics. But the goodwill towards the platform has slowly eroded with every change Musk implements. (The goodwill towards Meta had long dried up, but even that hasn't stopped its insane uptake in the past 5 days.)
Desperation must be kicking in as he watches his $44 billion investment sink in value. What can he do to turn the tide? As I wrote on Thursday, how Musk reacts to Threads will make or break the future of Twitter. If he rushes out poorly-considered features or hides even more behind the blue paywall, he risks turning away more of the user's anti-blue base. If he pushes down the road of "freedom of speech" and goes even lighter on moderation, the inevitable problems ahead will push more people away. If rumors are true and he turns Twitter into an "everything app," adding payments and other features, he could shift the platform too far away from its roots, alienating those already disgruntled by its widening direction and sending them to Meta's far more simple text-based offering. Worst of all, he could lean into his devoted cult-like following and make it the world's most expensive echo chamber.
I don't think Threads will kill Twitter, but it will certainly leave an impact. For now, the two will coincide; Twitter more focused on news, politics and culture, while Threads will try to maintain its image of being "happier" and more about community (the company's words, not mine.) But Threads should have Twitter worried, and those who love Twitter should be even more worried that an egomaniac with a severely bruised ego is the one at the helm tasked with charting a course to stability.
He's petulant, immature, and now has a bone to pick. Twitter was already hanging by a thread; it might not be long before it’s completely screwed.