Apple's New Headset Is Devoid of Reality
Is this the iPhone moment AR/VR so desperately needs?
Well, it finally happened. After many years of speculation, Apple has just announced the launch of its mixed reality headset - the Vision Pro.
The conference was full of the typical product launches (read: rehashes); things slightly smaller, slightly faster, slightly thinner, slightly more powerful. All of that is very Apple. But what we all wanted was a peak at the company’s rumoured headset; its gamble on a new product category. Was this Apple’s new category killer?
Well, despite rumours Apple tried for years to make the device a pair of glasses (which would have been revolutionary), this looks like a pair of swanky ski goggles, just with the added Apple-esque touches like “the Digital Crown” and all the bumps and groves that comes with its signature material choices. But it’s just another clunky headset. It also comes with some dumb features, like the tethering battery pack that means a cable hangs from the device. It also does as you’d expect; your apps now blend into your surroundings, and you can control things with your eyes, hand movements and voice.
The demo showed some use cases — most of which we’ve seen before — and a freaky feature called EyeSight, which displays your eyes when people are nearby (rather than just taking off the headset?) It went full Black Mirror on that one.
My immediate reaction? The device does some stuff. Most of it is unnecessary and far from the revolution the company is kidding itself with (“the most innovative product the company has created”, according to Richard Howarth, Apple’s Head of Design.) The technology behind it is probably impressive. There were some flashy words and big design terms. But it’s all a bit underwhelming. Utterly pointless. And it comes at the eye-watering cost of $3499.
Yeah, you read that right.
The Reality of Virtual Reality
Look, I’ve laid into Meta, the Metaverse and the Oculus. The device is clunky, and it’s unfeasible to think people could wear it for long periods. The world it grants entry to has been devoid of fun, purpose or other people. The Meta pivot was done more as a PR stunt than a serious “dream” of Mark Zuckerberg. It’s gone so badly that Zuckerberg recently quite pivoted to A.I. in the hopes everyone would forget how loudly he was shouting that the Metaverse was going to be the future of the internet. Sales of the Oculus have started to decline thanks to underwhelming sales and mixed reviews. Despite burning billions of dollars, barely any of us use one, let alone own one.
So what of Apple’s attempt to enter this market? Notably, there was no mention of the Metaverse or VR in Apple’s reveal of the device. That could be for two reasons; either Apple envisions a different way of living with these devices, more as an aide to certain apps and processes rather than an entry-point to a digital world, or the company is smart enough to know that even if it is a Metaverse device, the word is toxic.
One of my favourites in the business and tech space, Scott Galloway, has already predicted the device is DOA. In a video shared on his Twitter, he said,
“Apple’s headset is going to be one of the biggest tech failures. I think it will rival the Oculus, and officially be the most elegant, final nail in the coffin of this headset-driven VR consensual hallucination.”
I think it would be ignorant to write off Apple right out of the gate.
Just look at the AirPods; seen as an expensive gimmick upon launch, they’ve become so successful they’d be a Fortune 500 company if the division were spun off. After slow iteration, the company seems to have nailed its Apple Watch, which has sold over 195 million units since the first model was released. The iPhone, though largely unchanged these days, is largely unchanged because it’s completed. Through yearly iteration, it got faster, lighter and better, and it sells over 200 million units yearly.
If Apple commits to the headset, it could chart a similar product journey. The first few models may release with serious limitations but sell okay. But slowly, over time, Apple will improve the technology. Developers will figure out new ways to implement the device. The headset will become more accessible, easier to use, and perform better. And eventually, it may wean its way into the daily digest, becoming another money-spinning product.
As Casey Newton wrote in his newsletter Platformer,
“Monday won’t be the right time to judge whether Apple has succeeded or failed. Nor will be the day that the Reality Pro goes on sale. From the iPhone to the Apple Watch, the company’s 1.0 launches often arrive with obvious limitations. Only through steady iteration — and support from third-party developers — do the company’s devices eventually break through.”
But will it be supported in the long term? During the conference, the company claimed this was “just the start.” But Apple’s internal predictions are hardly expecting a runaway success. It has downgraded its sales predictions more than once. Once as high as 7-10 million, the company cut this to 3 million, then 900,000, then 500,000… now, some predict Apple may sell only one headset per day per retail store. That works out to around 180,000 units. If that’s the outcome, does Tim Cook sanction millions of dollars to try again next year? If the headset fails and causes the share price to wobble or confidence to dip in the company's ability to innovate, will Cook risk stoking this concern further by doubling down? I think not.
The reality Apple faces is this. There’s a huge stigma attached to headsets. There’s a whole host of privacy concerns that work against the brand the company has built over the years. The price tag means there’s a very select group of consumers who can afford the device.
And what of the bigger questions? Do the majority of people want this? Do people want to live, work and play in headsets? Is it even healthy for society to move in this direction, with the creators pretending these devices increase connection when they do the opposite? Only time will tell. But Apple's launch has done little to answer the very important why. The conference closed with an ad that showed how Apple saw the device being used. But it was devoid of reality. The truth is most people will use this device alone because why would you be out in public wearing a pair of goggles?
The Vision Pro headset could have been the iPhone moment AR/VR so desperately needs. But more likely, it will virtually kill the idea that this is our future.
I really do not understand the appeal of this. Nothing will ever be as good as reality. I think it’s just another technology designed to distract the populations from the social malaise in the west.